地区竞争、选举政治与“一带一路”债务可持续性——剖析所谓“债务陷阱外交”论

从2017年开始,国际舆论较为频繁地使用"债务陷阱外交"描述中国"一带一路"倡议背后的战略目的。从经济角度衡量,中国给"一带一路"沿线国家的贷款条件并不苛刻,且在中国推出"一带一路"之前,大量中低收入国家的债务负担就已经出现明显增长趋势,并不存在"一带一路"引发系统性"债务陷阱"的问题。因此,"债务陷阱外交"论缺乏经济基础。进而可以发现,东道国及其所处的地区政治环境在"债务陷阱外交"论产生与传播的过程中扮演了重要角色。为此,本文构建了一个地区环境与国内政治选举相互作用的分析框架,通过比较案例研究分析了"债务陷阱外交"论在典型国家出现、传播与发挥影响的机制。"一带一路"项目往往与东道国执政者"政治捆绑",国内权力更迭导致的国家发展战略变动,为该国政府改变自身对"一带一路"的政策选择创造了空间,其所处的地区政治环境也显著影响政策变化的幅度。中国在推进"一带一路"建设时,既要与东道国进行双边互动,充分重视东道国国内不同力量的博弈,也要注意到沿线国家所处地区政治环境对该国能否持续参与"一带一路"构成制约。我们需要以一种更加多维的视角进行思考,超越传统的紧盯美国的对外政策模式,为"一带一路"的顺利实施营造更加良好的政治环境。     

腐败心理的内涵、构成及抑制策略

腐败心理是支配腐败行为人实施腐败行为的复杂心理现象的总称。腐败心理不仅是腐败行为发生的内在动因,其构成要素的组合状况和特点还决定了腐败行为的性质、类型和发生频次。因此,抑制腐败心理的生成,需要培育积极的心理动力结构要素、合理的心理认知结构要素和有效的心理自控结构要素,从源头上构筑起预防腐败行为发生的内在防线。     

构建社会主义和谐社会是一项复杂的社会系统工程

社会主义和谐社会是一个复杂的动态网络系统,而构建社会主义和谐社会则是一项复杂的社会系统工程。这项工程在运行机制和功能上都有其特殊的表现。不仅如此,它还内蕴着规律的复杂动态网络系统的交互作用。正确把握这些规律及其交互作用,对于推进社会主义和谐社会的建设至关重要。     

Identity construction of suspects in telecom and internet fraud discourse: from a sociosemiotic perspective

ABSTRACT

As a new kind of contactless crime, the telecom and internet fraud has become a public hazard, with criminals targeting massive numbers of innocent victims. It is a prominent criminal problem that currently affects social stability and the sense of security of the public. Since the six Ministries and Commissions jointly cracked down the crime in 2016, the number of cases and the number of people deceived have decreased, but the occurrence and frequency has still been at a high rate, and the situation is deteriorating. Regardless of the scientific and technological means used by fraudsters, the main medium is language. From a sociosemiotic perspective, this study identifies that the criminal suspects use the discourse resources to fabricate false information and construct false identities through discursive practice, with the aim of achieving the communicative purpose of obtaining victims’ trust, tricking, deceiving and manipulating their victims into giving out confidential information and funds. This study, taking telecom fraud discourse as one type of genre, examines the dynamic process of selecting and constructing identities by manipulating related discourse resources and strategies in the social-cultural context. This study further provides a sociosemiotic solution to telecom fraud prevention.     

隐性动态贫困的识别与治理——兼论反向国债作为扶贫济困新思路的可行性

“隐性动态贫困”的识别与治理是一个世界性难题,也是我国扶贫济困工作未来所面对的主要挑战。传统治理工具主要应对“绝对贫困状态-相对贫困状态”路径及存在可识别的贫困表征的相对贫困问题,较难对“非贫困状态-相对贫困状态”路径的相对贫困问题进行有效的识别与应对。以“隐性动态贫困”问题的有效识别与应对为目标,国家应推出反向国债作为一种新的扶贫济困的治理工具,以作为传统扶贫济困治理工具的补充,为相对贫困中的“隐性动态贫困”问题的识别与治理提供新思路。     

Electoral volatility and parties’ ideological responsiveness

For a number of decades now, scholars have been indicating that ties between citizens and parties are eroding. As a consequence, electoral behaviour has become more volatile and also more unpredictable. The consequences of this process of change on parties’ strategic behaviour have, however, received little attention. In this article, the impact of dealignment on parties’ strategic behaviour is examined, with the focus being on the extent to which parties are responsive to the mean voter. The expectation of dealignment allowing parties ‘to move around more freely’ leads to the hypothesis that parties are more responsive in a context of dealignment. The analyses provide evidence that is in line with this expectation. Ideological responsiveness is conditioned by the level of volatility in the electorate. The conclusion to draw from these results is that dealignment, which profoundly affects voters’ behaviour, leads parties to become more responsive to the mean voter.     

商业贿赂犯罪的动态特征与发展趋势

近年来，随着我国市场经济不断发展，发生在商品流通和服务行业等领域的商业贿赂行为并未得到切实有效地根治，作为一种具有动态意义的新型经济犯罪活动，其触角逐步伸入其他行业和领域，并呈现出一系列新的特点和发展态势。其动态变化特征主要有：犯罪形式多样，犯罪手段隐蔽，侦查难度加大；行业特点明显，发案部门集中，窝案串案突出；案件数目上升，涉案金额加大，大要案比例高；职务犯罪突出，主体特征明显，顶风作案严重。其发展趋势表现为：犯罪领域扩展，防控精度下降；作案手法翻新，查处难度加大；组织程度提高，期货特征明显；社会影响恶劣，危害程度加剧。各地应根据本地商贿犯罪现实情形与发展态势，建立健全惩防商贿犯罪的长效机制。     

浅析国内府际博弈模式的缺陷与重构

本文通过归纳美国州际契约的成功要点，得出府际博弈“达优解”几个要件，即博弈主体地位独立而平等、获取资源的机会均等，博弈规则具法律效力、信息沟通快速顺畅，重视长期利益和相对利益等，认为造成目前我国府际博弈现状与“达优解”状态之间的差距的原因主要有传统的行政等级影响、获取资源的机会不公平，信息沟通机制滞后等因素，并提出相应的对策建议。     

Prior Commitments: Compatible Interests versus Capabilities in Alliance Behavior

The rapid emergence of transnational networks in world politics calls for an analysis of their power dynamics. By combining the advocacy network literature and the two-level game theory in an innovative manner, this article provides a theoretical conceptualization of the interplay between intra- and inter-network interactions. It argues that the strength of a network as agent springs from its force as a structure. A network win-set is determined by its internal games, thereby affecting both its bargaining power and its chance to reach a consensual agreement with other networks. The issue of access to medicines is used as a factual background to illustrate how the flow of influence within networks affects influence among networks.     

Videogame analysis: a social-semiotic approach

The relevance of videogames in the contemporary cultural ecosystem and their social impact make it necessary to develop theories and analytical models to understand the expressive potential of videogame design, and how videogames work as texts, giving shape to certain values, behavioural patterns and ideological visions. To do so, it is crucial to build a bridge between game studies and contemporary semiotics. Thus, with this aim, we present in this paper an analysis model for studying videogames as texts that combines theoretical and methodological elements from social semiotics and procedural rhetorics, a specific branch of game studies. Our model is based on four levels: the narrative, ludo-narrative, system-gameplay and designer-player dimensions. As a case study, the model is applied to the videogame The Last of Us.